Predicted Grades and UCAS: A Calm Timeline for Families Who Arrived After GCSEs

If your family moved to the UK after your child's GCSE years, or your child did not take GCSEs at all, the university application process can feel like it started without you. Classmates seem to know about "predicted grades", "UCAS" and "the January deadline", while you are still learning how the sixth form works.

This guide explains what predicted grades are used for in university applications, roughly when things happen, and when families usually hear about them. The pattern below repeats every year, but exact dates change with each application cycle. Where we give specific dates, they are UCAS's published dates for 2027 entry, shown as an example; students now in Year 12 will usually be applying for 2028 entry, so always check the current UCAS dates and your school's own internal deadlines, which are usually earlier.

What UCAS is

UCAS is the organisation through which most students apply to undergraduate courses at UK universities and colleges. Students make one online application, which can include up to five course choices. For students applying through a school or college, the school adds an academic reference and the predicted grades before sending the application to UCAS.

What a predicted grade is

UCAS describes a predicted grade as the grade an applicant's school or college believes they are likely to achieve in positive circumstances. UCAS asks schools to make predictions that are achievable, based on evidence such as internal assessments and current work, and set using teachers' professional judgement. It also says predictions should be set independently of which universities a student is applying to.

Universities use predicted grades, along with other information in the application, to help them understand a student's potential. Different universities use them in different ways. Many offers are "conditional": the university offers a place if the student achieves certain grades in their final exams. When results arrive, the university makes its final decision.

So a predicted grade is not a result, and it is not a promise. It is the school's professional estimate at the time of application.

A calm timeline (the yearly pattern)

The stages below follow the same order every year. Example dates are UCAS's published key dates for 2027 entry; dates for later cycles are published by UCAS and may differ. Your child's school will have its own timetable within these.

Year 12, spring and summer. Students begin researching courses. UCAS usually opens the new application cycle in the spring (for 2027 entry it opened on 12 May 2026), and course search shows the next year's courses shortly before. Schools often use Year 12 assessments and end-of-year exams as part of the evidence for predictions. UCAS advises schools to tell students their likely predicted grades in good time to inform their research.

Year 13, from 1 September. Completed applications can be submitted to UCAS from this date. The school must finish the reference and predicted grades before sending.

Mid-October (15 October for 2027 entry, 18:00 UK time). Equal consideration date for applications to the universities of Oxford and Cambridge, and for most courses in medicine, dentistry and veterinary medicine or science. Schools usually set an internal deadline several weeks earlier.

Mid-January (13 January 2027 for 2027 entry, 18:00 UK time). Equal consideration date for most undergraduate courses. Applications received by this date must be considered equally by universities.

Winter to spring. Universities send decisions. For 2027 entry, UCAS published an advisory date of 31 March 2027 by which universities should aim to have sent decisions on applications received by the January date.

Summer. Final results arrive and universities confirm places. Clearing opens in early July for eligible applicants.

When families usually hear about predicted grades

Practice varies, but in many schools students are told their likely predictions towards the end of Year 12 or early in Year 13, before the application is finalised. UCAS's guidance to schools notes that students do not see the reference or predicted grades inside the application system itself, so the school's own conversation with your child is usually where you will hear about them.

If your child joined the school recently, there may be less evidence for teachers to draw on. That is a good reason to ask, early and politely, how predictions are made.

Questions you can ask the school

1. When will my child be told their likely predicted grades?
2. What evidence do teachers use to set predictions?
3. Is there a process for discussing a prediction if new evidence becomes available before the application is sent?
4. What are the school's internal deadlines for UCAS applications?
5. Who in the sixth form leads on university applications?

Keeping it in proportion

UCAS itself notes that the gap between predicted and achieved grades has widened over time, and that students do not always achieve their predictions. For families, this is a reminder to treat predictions as one part of planning, not the final word. Choosing a balanced set of courses, with a range of entry requirements, is a sensible approach that many school advisers recommend.

This article does not cover fees, funding, or immigration status, which depend on individual circumstances. Please check official sources and the universities directly for those questions.

Where to go next

Treat predicted grades as one part of university planning, and check the school’s evidence, timetable and application deadlines.

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